Gary North - February 19, 2014
Remnant Review
"A spectre is haunting Communism. It is the spectre of churches without buildings."
If there were a Christian Karl Marx today, his
Manifesto of Third World Christianity could begin with these words.
In
1973, in his last years, Mao's persecution had reduced the number of
Protestants in China to something in the range of 3 million people. The
estimate today is 120 million. No one knows. This is a good thing. If
the state cannot count them, it cannot persecute them.
Chinese
Protestants have adopted a strategy used in the late Roman Empire. They
are worshiping in homes and secret buildings. They stay on the move.
In short: the churches do not have 9-digit zip codes.
The same strategy was used under the Soviet Empire before it collapsed in late 1991.
The same strategy has worked in the tribal states of the post-European empire world in sub-Sahara Africa.
The same system is working in Latin America, to the dismay of the bureaucrats.
This
has received little attention in the West, because this strategy relies
on invisibility. The West's intellectuals suffer from a myth of
modernism: "If bureaucrats cannot count something, it cannot be
important. It it cannot be computerized, it cannot be socially
relevant." Call it the NSA's blind spot. Call it the IRS's nightmare.
The strategy is simple to describe:
no permanent real estate. There are no permanent church buildings.
If
you can't find it, you cannot tax it. If you cannot find it, you
cannot regulate it. If you cannot find it, you cannot subsidize it. If
you cannot tax it or regulate it or subsidize it, the state cannot
suppress it. It's simple. And it is working, just as it worked from
Nero to Diocletian.
There is a book that touches on this peripherally: Philip Jenkins'
The Next Christendom
(Oxford University Press). It has received little attention from the
humanists or the Christians in the West. They do not think it is
important, because anything that cannot be taxed, regulated, or
subsidized is too far outside the comprehension of ether Western
bureaucrats or Western Christians.
Chistendom means Christian
civilization. The home church movement launches the church in a hostile
environment. Eventually, it comes out of the shadows. Eventually, it
becomes respectable. Eventually, it can afford church buildings. This is
the moment of truth. Can it possess influence without possessing
political power? Political power seems to be the nemesis of the church.
Yet churches must speak to issues like infanticide, which they did in
the Roman Empire. How can any institution speak truth to power, yet not
become corrupted by power? This has been the conundrum facing the
church for almost two millennia.
UNDER THE STATE'S RADAR
I begin with four principles of institutional survival.
1. Growth is not automatic.
2. Attrition is universal.
3. Growth must be greater than attrition for extension to occur.
4. Growth requires a plan.
These apply to every
institution. To understand what is happening today in Black Africa,
China, Latin America, and certain parts of India, consider the task
facing a church planter.
This problem faced church leaders in
Communist China in 1973. But, less well known, it also faced an obscure
fundamentalist foreign missionary in India in 1991. He had just been
thrown out of India by the government. Why? Because it was a way for
the Indian government to quietly protest George H. W. Bush's Gulf War.
The decision had nothing to do with religious persecution. It was
politically motivated. Anyway, this is the explanation given by the
victim, David Watson.
I had not heard of him until about three
years ago, when I stumbled across the video of the speech that he gave
to a hard-core group in a Texas church. His presentation begins at 13
minutes. You have never heard anything like this:
Watson Video.
Watson enjoys flying below the radar. He is a hard man to find.
He
has revolutionized Protestant foreign missions. Protestant foreign
missions began in the 1740s. The Mennonites were the pioneers. John
Wesley imitated them. So, the field is fairly new. Only in the late
1700s did a Baptist missionary travel to India. Only in the late 1860s
did Protestant missionaries reach China.
Watson in 1989 went to
northeast India, known as the graveyard of missionaries. His family was
expelled in 1991. He left, beaten. He did not want to go back. But he
went back in 1992. Over the next 15 years, his six-person team started
home churches that in turn multiplied. When he left India in 2007, the
total number was 80,000 churches. Not converts -- churches.
Those who have adopted his strategy have started
200,000 churches,
as of 2009. The number is larger today. On average, each church had
about 60 people. This was 12 million people in 2009. I know of no system
of evangelism for any idea in history that spread this fast.
Why
was this relevant? Because it costs virtually nothing to launch one of
these ministries, apart from financing one missionary. This program then
becomes self-funded in the recipient country.
There are no
subsidies, either from Western churches or Third World governments. With
no subsidies, the churches cannot easily be traced.
No matter
what you believe about God, man, law, sanctions, and the future, this
video is astounding. Here was a self-admitted failure who went back into
the field. It is the story of a beaten man who achieved an historic
breakthrough. These stories are always worth considering.
Only one
thing can stop the process in its tracks, once it gets started: a
church building. As soon as a building goes up, the multiplication
stops.
His system is not imitated by denominational foreign
missions organizations. Instead, they send out American missionaries at
$60,000 a year, who in an entire career start maybe two congregations.
It costs about two million dollars to achieve this. It also costs the
salaries of the missions bureaucrats in the United States.
The
foreign missions organizations will therefore not adopt Watson's system.
Why not? Because it does not preach the defining, narrowly focused
theological point of the missions bureaucracy. So, this defining
denominational-theological point remains right where it is: locked up in
the denomination. The entire denomination's membership is maybe 3% of
the people Watson and his imitators have persuaded since 1992. Maybe
less.
Here is the key:
the process is reproducible. They have the statistics for Africa and Latin America.
This
is a distinctively non-Western program. It self-consciously resists
spreading the message in terms of Western categories. It is generic
Christianity.
This is like a wedge. It is not the end of the
process. It is only the beginning. This is lowest-common-denominator
Christianity. In Pareto's terminology, this is the bottom 80%. It is
the starting point.
TO START A CHURCH IN ASIA
Consider
the challenge of India. There are about 1.2 billion people in India.
There is no way to generate capital sufficient to build enough churches
to evangelize India in a generation. The same holds true for China. It
has to be done with a house church system. There is no other way.
The
tremendous advantage that the Communists gave to Protestants in China
is that there was either persecution of the church under Mao or the
Three-Self movement, which is a government-approved church, whose
members meet in buildings that can be monitored by the Communist
hierarchy.
This led to the creation of house churches. All over
China, Protestants create house churches. Sometimes the government
arrests the pastor, but he is replaced immediately from inside the
congregation. We don't know how many Protestants there are in China
today, but a common estimate is 120 million. In 1973, there were
probably fewer than 3 million. We know now what happened. All of this
came as a result of the fact that the Communists either tried to stamp
out Protestantism, or else they tried to control it by confining it in
buildings, where the government could monitor what was going on. This
has led to the largest, fastest evangelism explosion in the history of
the church.
In terms of percentages, 120 million is 10% of the
Chinese population. But Protestant evangelists were in China from the
1860s, and there was not much growth until the serious persecutions
began in the aftermath of the cultural revolution of the mid-1960s.
Mao
drove all the Western missionaries and pastors out of China in the
early 1950s. That was the making of the Protestant church in China. That
exodus freed the Chinese church from the legacy of seminary-trained
pastors, church buildings, and large congregations.
We're seeing
the greatest evangelism movement in the history of the world, yet we're
not seeing it. We're not seeing it, because it has no buildings, no
ordained pastors, and no hierarchical organizations. There are only
local organizations, and they multiply under persecution. They don't
have any money, but they don't need any money, so they multiply.
PENTECOSTAL EVANGELISM
A
variant of this system of evangelism among the outcasts began in Los
Angeles in 1906, about two weeks before the San Francisco earthquake.
It is known as Pentecostalism. It was a movement of the lower classes
initially. It got little publicity in a religious world run by mainline
denominations, which were moving rapidly to the social gospel and
modernism. These people were off the American Establishment's radar.
They had no seminaries. They did not even have tiny denominational
colleges.
Today, the estimates of the number of Pentecostals worldwide is in the range of 250 million. It could be
500 million. This has taken place in one century.
In
America, they have church buildings. They have a more visible
structure. But in sub-Sahara Africa and Latin America, they have little
social standing. They have minimal support from North America. Their
churches begin in homes and storefronts, just as they did in the United
States a century ago. They are dominant in zip codes that Charles
Murray has described as "Fishtown" in his 2012 book,
Coming Apart. They are a force of healing where the social fabric is coming apart.
They
used techniques developed by John Wesley in the 1750s. They targeted
people at the bottom. Like the Methodists in the eighteenth-century
England, they do not stay on the bottom for long. The change in their
behavior lets them move up: sobriety, hard work, and thrift have very
definite personal and social effects.
Pentecostals had no
theological seminaries. So, they could not be easily captured. Besides,
no one in the Establishment wanted to capture them. Wesley understood
this in 1750.
Yet by 1900, the Methodist Church was the most
theologically liberal trinitarian denomination in the United States.
They had colleges. Their leaders were trained in seminaries. They were
respectable. There is something about respectability that undercuts
Christian evangelism. It lures power-seekers to infiltrate the seats of
influence within the organization. Money, respectability, and influence
are like a flame to moths. The moths just cannot seem to stay away.
The process of infiltration begins with church buildings and zip codes. It ends up with seminaries. Then growth ceases.
ACCREDITED THEOLOGICAL SEMINARIES
Seminary
education was cheap fifty years ago, when I attended one. Today,
Protestant seminary students can get federally insured loans. The
seminaries have gotten onto the state's gravy train. The price of
seminary education is now sometimes comparable to a private graduate
school. YThe graduates must enter the job market fast. They have debts
to pay. The job market must be conventional. It must pay good salaries.
To
make the home church model work, a church has to abandon the concept of
the theological seminary. In order to multiply fast enough to make a
difference, a denomination cannot possibly require ministers to attend a
seminary. This model was invented in 1808, after Harvard started
moving openly to Unitarianism. It tacked three more years on top of
four years at Harvard. The Congregationalists invented it. It seemed
like such a great way to restrict the supply of pastors that the
Presbyterians copied it three years later.
Think "guild." Think: "limiting supply." Think: "higher salaries."
What
was the result? The Presbyterians, the Episcopalians, and the
Congregationalists were never able to plant many churches West of the
Allegheny Mountains. That was because they required college degrees and
seminary degrees, which are limited to an elite. The graduates wanted
high salaries for all their academic work. This led to standard churches
east of the Alleghenies: buildings and congregations large enough to
pay the pastors.
Meanwhile, west of the Alleghenies, the Baptists
and Methodists used a completely different model. Laymen did the
preaching. They adopted what became known as circuit riding. John Wesley
had created this model in the 1740s. One missionary could be a pastor
to half a dozen congregations, once every six weeks. Laymen ran then in
between. Between 1801, when the Second Great Awakening began in
Kentucky, until about 1820, the Baptists and Methodists started so many
churches, that by the time the Presbyterians and Congregationalists
crossed the Alleghenies, everybody had heard the message. West of the
Alleghenies, the Methodists and the Baptists prevailed. This was an
ecclesiastical manifestation of fundamental economic law:
the lower the price, the greater the quantity demanded.
The
East Coast denominations moved west decades later. Their harvest fields
were in Baptist and Methodist fields. They grew when discontented
Baptists and Methodists went looking for more rigorous theology and
people with higher incomes and better educations.
These days,
the Pentecostals do the preliminary harvesting work. The Methodists
went liberal a century ago, and the Baptists no longer emphasize
evangelism to the degree that they once did. German sociologist and
religion expert Max Weber had a phrase for this a century ago: "The
routinization of charisma." It seems to be a law of ecclesiology.
Pentecostalism
outside the United States is the least routinized movement of all. It
has cut to almost nothing the two largest expenses of starting a church:
real estate costs and pastoral salaries. Pentecostalism in the Third
World can start a church with practically no money. There is no way on
the face of the earth that Western Christianity that is not Pentecostal,
or that refuses to adopt a Pentecostal model, can compete with
Pentecostals. It costs too much.
A theological seminary for the
21st century has an available model: the Khan Academy. There is a core
curriculum. There is a core assumption about the way the world works.
But the delivery system is completely decentralized. There is no system
of enforcement. There are only online tests. The tests are administered
locally, probably by parents. Authority lies with the parents, not with
Khan Academy.
All of the professors at theological seminaries
today should make videos, PDFs, tests, and reading lists of everything
they teach. They should post it all online for free. Then they should
either resign or else persuade their denominations to pay them to devote
their time only to a graduate program in theology. But the
denominations will not do this, as the professors know. The donors
donate for only one reason: to produce men eligible academically to
become pastors. Protestant denominations really don't care about
advancing their theology, which they view as divisive, not to mention
expensive.
The professors are not going to quit. They want
lifetime employment. But the brick-and-mortar seminaries are no longer
needed. The world is going to ignore them. (It already does.) The world
will pass them by. (It already has.) They will train a handful of
evangelists annually, and meanwhile a guy like David Watson went out and
designed a system that produced 80,000 congregations in a little over a
decade. Then, his work finished, he resigned.
There is no way
that 7 billion people (soon to be 9 billion) can be evangelized in one
generation by means of at least one ordained pastor per congregation,
seminary education, church buildings, and
one acre of parking for every 300 people. It cannot happen. It is statistically impossible.
This
is why Pentecostal Christianity has converted something in the range of
250 million people in about a century. World Christian evangelism today
is mostly Pentecostalism, because Pentecostalism outside the United
States does not care about the following: seminary education, church
buildings, large congregations, and pastors who do nothing except get
paid to pastor. Their only demographically serious rivals are those
non-Charismatics who have adopted Watson's model.
This model began
in the homes and catacombs of the Roman Empire. Slowly, the churches
gained influence. They began taking responsibility for the poor and the
outcasts. This gained them respectability. The Roman state fought this.
It made it illegal for anyone to pick up abandoned babies and rear them.
Abandoning babies was a common practice in ancient Rome. The Christians
broke this law.
The Roman empire eventually collapsed. The
church became the leader of what came to be called Christendom:
Christian civilization. But power tends to corrupt, and absolute power
-- asserted by the state -- corrupts absolutely.
ZIP CODES AND EVANGELISM EXPENSES
Let
us assume that you want to start a church. You may be the pastor of an
existing church, and you want to spin off a local congregation. This is
extremely rare. Most pastors want their congregations to get bigger.
Maybe
you are a young man. You have been trained to be a minister, and you
don't want to be an assistant pastor in some struggling church, or even
in a mega-church. You want to start from the ground up. What working
model do you have?
There are two fundamental barriers to the
expansion of the church. These are the two most important limits on
starting almost any organization that is based on face-to-face contact.
The first problem is the cost of real estate. The second problem is the
inherent limitation of management ability.
What is the biggest
problem facing somebody who wants to start a church? There is no
question what it is: real estate costs a lot in cities. Real estate is
incredibly expensive. Think about what it costs to start a church in New
York City, Los Angeles, Boston, or almost any other American city. Now
think about London, Paris, Madrid, or Shanghai. How he will afford the
real estate?
The real estate for a church generates money only one
day a week. Basically, it only generates money for one hour a week. It
is in competition with a business that might want the property, and the
business operates at least 40 hours a week. If the business is
international, it operates 24 x 7. How is a church going to compete in
terms of what it can offer to buy a piece of real estate, if the
competition is operating a business? This is why you do not have
churches popping up around the country. This, more than any other
factor, is why urbanization goes secular.
You can rent a funeral
home. It won't work. The atmosphere is death. "Let the dead bury the
dead." The dry bones model does not work.
You can rent an old
movie theater. What killed it? First, theater complexes (centralized);
then, Blockbuster (decentralized); then, Netflix (more decentralized).
You can rent an empty mini-mall. What killed it? Walmart (centralized); then Amazon (decentralized).
You can rent a public school in some states. This is a popular way to get started.
David
Watson in India solved the real estate problem very simply: he adopted a
home church model. The evangelist is the head of his household. He
invites people into his home. The limit on the size of the congregation
is therefore the size of his home. If he has a small home, he cannot run
a large church. If he has a larger home, he can run a somewhat larger
church. But none of the churches can get very large, because nobody owns
that a home that large. Anyway, none of the people who respond to the
invitation has that large home.
The second problem that Watson's
model solves is the management problem. When a man runs out of space in
his home, he has to train somebody else to start a congregation in his
own home. So, there is emphasis on multiplication. There is no way that
there won't be a problem if the church is successful. The church is
going to run out of space. So, before the pastor runs out of management
ability, the church runs out of space. Everything is geared to
multiplication, because everybody knows he is going to run out of space.
What
I have described here does not afflict an organization that is
exclusively digital. But churches cannot be exclusively digital. They
have to be face-to-face organizations. They have to be fellowships.
Facebook is not a fellowship.
DECENTRALIZATION
If
we believe that decentralization is the wave of the future, then
decentralization is the wave of the evangelical future. We already know
this, because it costs too much money to build a church in Los Angeles.
There is no way that building-based churches can grow with the
population. There is only one possibility: home churches. But the
ecclesiastical structures that have prevailed ever since Emperor
Constantine made Christianity the official religion of the Roman Empire
have adopted the structure of the Roman Empire. It is a top-down
structure. It is a bureaucratic structure.
No organization can be
completely autonomous and expect to survive. There has to be continuity
over time. You have to design ways of settling disputes outside a local
organization. Otherwise, church splits will be continual. But even this
leads to two churches competing, which can lead to church growth. But
there has to be an appeals court system -- for congregations and for
civil governments. But the ecclesiastical appeals court should only be
an appeals court. It should enforce certain standards for local
congregations, and then it should enforce those standards only by
specific cases that come up the chain of appeal. Anything more than this
results in a top-down bureaucracy. We saw this with liberal
Christianity, beginning around 1900, and peaking in 1960. Ever since
that time, the more decentralized models have replaced the mainline
denominations, which are shrinking.
Everything is being
decentralized. Education is being decentralized by means of the web:
Khan Academy. Production is being decentralized by means of smaller
industrial units that are heavily computerized: specialized steel mills.
Soon, 3-D printing is going to replace many of those models.
Virtually everything except the state is moving in the direction of decentralization.
But there is another exception: denominations. Churches have maintained
the Western model, and the Western model is bureaucratic. The Western
model is centralized. The Western model gets money into the top of the
hierarchy, and in the hierarchy hands out the money for evangelism.
There
is a big exception to this model: foreign missions. Independent
missionary societies have been successful. Denominational boards of
foreign missions have not. Why not? Because the money has always come
from women, and women don't give money to denominational boards of
missions. They give money to specific young men and young women who go
out as teams to evangelize pagans. Women have controlled foreign
missions' spending in Protestant churches for 200 years, and they have
never bought into the centralized model. Women are much too personal.
They want to meet the young men and young women who are going out, and
they want to hear reports from them. They do not send money to a
centralized missions organization run by the denomination. That has been
the testimony of 200 years of Protestant evangelism, and it is not
going to change.
Now what we need is evangelism that is at least
80% funded by indigenous populations. They are the only ones who can
afford the manpower to evangelize the enormous numbers of people who
must be evangelized in order to deal with today's 7 billion people, with
2 billion more to come. There is no other way.
What about
education? The Internet is the future. Denominations will educate
formally. Pastors and evangelists will serve as mentors to apprentices.
The training will be practical. It will not be based primary on the
ability to write term papers.
Organizationally, you get both the
one and the many. You get the one, meaning centralization, by means of
denominational videos, and all the other training that can be put on the
web. You get the many through so many local congregations that no
centralized, top-down system can work. This is true in every area of
life: economics, politics, and churches.
There are multiple denominations. There is lots of competition for ideas and projects.
What
makes the difference in churches is face-to-face communications. It is
little people, starting little home churches, bringing people into
their homes, who will make the difference.
The mega-churches can
be coordination centers for home churches. They can function as
cathedrals did a millennium ago. Once a month, local church members can
attend special functions. If things go well, these should be run all
day long.
If every church member invited a friend to church next
week, and every invitation were accepted, there would be no room in the
parking lot.
The real estate of the modern church announces: "Visitors not welcome." The structures have been designed on this basis: "Evangelism does not work. Get used to it." We have gotten used to it.
Decentralization
is the Amazon/UPS model. Do not copy the local department store
downtown. It is going bankrupt. The Amazon/UPS model is the wave of the
future in terms of capitalism, and it is also the wave of the future in
terms of education. Therefore, it is the wave of the future in terms of
evangelism.
The denominations don't believe this, any more than
the Council on Foreign Relations believes it with respect to civil
government. It doesn't matter what they believe, because it is already
here. The models have been adopted in China and India, and to a lesser
extent in Africa and Latin America. The model is not Western
bureaucratic Christianity. Doubt me? Read Jenkins' book. This is the
future, and it is already taking place. Yet the denominations and
seminaries ignore it. They are not preparing to reap the harvest in
Pentecostal fields.
The new models are decentralized. They are
made affordable by means of the World Wide Web and existing patterns of
real estate. This is the model of the future, and any institution that
does not adopt it is going to be overwhelmed. It cannot maintain its
present influence. Old organizations must either adapt now, on the
assumption that this is the model, or they will be blindsided by
reality. They will be superseded. There will be an end run around all of
them. They don't want to believe it, but it doesn't matter; it is
taking place now. The Pentecostal model is the model for Protestant
Christianity. In the same way that Amazon is the model for retail
purchases, so is the Pentecostal model.
The model is the Khan Academy.
In
the same way that the printing press made possible the Protestant
Reformation, so has the Internet made possible the next phase of world
Christianity. If Islam wants to keep up, it will have to adopt this
model. If the denominations in the West want to keep up, they will have
to adopt this model. If public education wants to keep up, it will have
to adopt this model. This is the wave of the future, and it is being
driven by Moore's law, Pareto's law, and the World Wide Web. You either
ride this wave, or else you get hammered by a pile-driver. (I grew up
in Manhattan Beach, California. If you rode the wrong wave, with or
without a surfboard, you ended up hitting the sand really hard.)
The Roman Catholic Church in the United States today ordains
500 priests year.
Not all of them go into the local parish priesthood. This is for a
denomination of about 78 million people. It is obvious that this cannot
go on, but the hierarchy won't respond to it. The statistical reality of
what is taking place does not change the hierarchy's working model.
What matters is tradition. So, the Church is going to be replaced or
reformed later. I single out the Roman Catholics only because they,
statistically speaking, have visibly reached the end of the
institutional road. Non-Pentecostal Protestants are in the same
situation, but because they are decentralized institutionally, they have
different ways of not achieving success. There is a division of labor
in failure. The Protestants are very good at this today. It hides the
problem.
CONCLUSION
Every institutional system
has its built-in problems. If theologians want to have an impact in the
future, they must start dealing with how the problems created by home
churches, the World Wide Web, an absence of church buildings, and no
physical seminaries will be dealt with in the future. This is the
future. It is time to deal with these problems now. It is time now to
start working on models that will enable these home churches to be
brought into a wider communication system. But one thing is sure: the
existing Western models are finished. They cannot survive, other than as
marginal institutions serving the needs of a tiny minority of those
people who call themselves Christians.
My view is that home
churches will continue to spring up around the world. There will be then
competition from denominations to recruit these local churches into
their respective folds. Individual local churches will eventually
discover that they are too isolated to have much effect socially. They
will need continuity to gain leverage. They will move frao "save souls"
to "heal societies." This requires money, influence, and education.
It eventually requires buildings.
Sam Walton used this strategy.
He built his stores where Sears and Montgomery Ward were not available.
He went to cheap zip codes, beyond the reach of local zoning
commissions. Then, when he had enough stores to have buying strength,
he insisted on discounts from wholesalers. Then he began moving into
cities. He began moving into zip codes where the money was. Not zip
codes where the big-money people lived -- zip codes where there were
lots of middle-class people looking for bargains.
Mao used the same strategy: first take the countryside, then take the cities.
Today,
Christianity can take the cities with a zip code strategy: residential,
not commercial. Abandoned strip malls, not Park Avenue.
The key to this strategy is the World Wide Web.
At
some point, the respectable evangelicals will catch on. They will
return to Wesley's strategy in 1750. They will adopt the equivalent of
circuit riding. It will not be one pastor on horseback every six weeks
in six small churches, but rather one pastor every week on 500 big
screen TVs that are hooked into a YouTube channel. Denominations and
seminaries will then begin to produce online Sunday school materials and
other digitally delivered tools for local home churches to use.
Successful
front-line evangelism in the Third World will not be conducted by
denominations in First World nations. Their theologies, their
traditions, their real estate, and their judicial structures militate
against successful front-line evangelism.
Christendom will move
into phase two in Third World countries when the Christians in First
World nations who have educations start training the Pentecostals and
home churches, who will in turn begin to understand that Christians have
social responsibilities and need education. The division of
intellectual of labor will then begin. It has yet to begin.
As
for successful evangelism in First World cities, I think the same
strategy will be adopted. The major barrier to entry is the price of
real estate. There is a way around this. Circuit rising works -- big
screen circuit riding.
Start here:
http://www.garynorth.com/public/department132.cfm